Kelly system

What is the Kelly system

The essence of the methodology is to correctly assess the onset of a given outcome and determine / adjust the optimal amount of a sports bet. The Kelly formula is simply an exact calculation of what percentage of our budget we can allocate to a given match at each stage of the game, based on our estimated odds of that outcome.

In order to use the Kelly system, we have to find bets where the odds seem to be “overpriced” – that is, in our opinion, this team has a better chance than those set by the bookmaker. Therefore, we will need to look for the so-called value bets – value bets and obvious mistakes of bookmakers. The higher the overweight, the higher the amount that we will spend on the coupon.

In the long run, regular use of the Kelly Criterion will help maximize profits. But the technique is suitable for those who are more or less “friends” with mathematical analysis.

The main principle of the Kelly criterion

What is the underlying principle of the Kelly Criterion, and why is this approach valued by professional cappers? Every player, even the most experienced, may have black bars when a series of several bets turns out to be losing. Following the Kelly Criterion, cappers will reduce the size of the next bet with each loss. As a result, with long losing streaks, the total loss gradually decreases.

For example, if a player makes bets that make up 10% of the total pot, then even with an unsuccessful series of six bets, you will only lose half of the deposit.To take another example, betting purely mathematically, setting the bet size as 10% of the total pot, will blow the entire pot for just 10 bets. A similar situation with the use of the Kelly criterion allows the probability of losing only 65% of your deposit, as a result, with a turning point, you will be able to win back your failures in a short time.

Pros and cons

There is no bookmaker system that would bring only profit and allow you to continuously beat the bookmaker. The Kelly method is also not perfect, but it has a number of advantages:

  • high chances of making a profit in the long term;
  • minimal risk of bankruptcy;
  • stable game – with a decrease in capital, the rate also decreases, this allows you to stably save the budget;
  • reliability – playing with value bets is the most reliable way to beat a bookmaker.

But the Kelly criterion has a couple of drawbacks:

  • the player must determine the probability of success before each new bet, this takes time and effort;
  • the system is suitable only for experienced players;
  • you need to constantly look for bets for which the bookmaker has incorrectly calculated the odds.

When playing this system, the first thing you need to do is be patient. Not everyone, especially in bookmakers, can boast of such a feature. Sometimes there are quick and easy victories, because luck favors beginners. But initial successes quickly fade and turn into losses. If you develop your knowledge of betting and understand that the bookmaker is not a sprint, but a marathon, then you will be ready to play the Kelly system.

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